Profession Calculators
SaaS & Digital Business

Subscription Revenue Forecast Calculator

Project 12-month subscription revenue based on current subscribers, ARPU, new subscriber growth, and monthly churn rate with a month-by-month forecast table.

Subscription Metrics

Month-over-month increase in new subscriber acquisition

12-Month Forecast

Enter subscription metrics and click forecast.

What This Calculator Does

This subscription revenue forecast calculator projects 12 months of recurring revenue based on your current subscriber count, average revenue per user (ARPU), new subscriber acquisition rate, and monthly churn. It generates a month-by-month table showing subscriber growth, MRR, and ARR projections.

The Formula

End Subscribers = Start Subscribers + New Subscribers - Churned Subscribers | MRR = Active Subscribers x ARPU

Each month, the model adds new subscribers and removes churned subscribers (churn rate applied to the start-of-month base). MRR is the total active subscriber count multiplied by average revenue per user. An optional growth rate compounds the new subscriber count month over month to model accelerating acquisition.

Step-by-Step Example

1

Enter current metrics

500 active subscribers at $49/month ARPU. MRR: $24,500.

2

Set growth parameters

50 new subscribers per month. 5% monthly churn rate. 5% month-over-month growth in new subs.

3

Review Month 6

Subscribers: 592. New: 64/mo. Churned: 30/mo. MRR: $29,008.

4

Review Month 12

Subscribers: 701. MRR: $34,349. ARR: $412,188. Customer LTV: $980.

Real-World Use Cases

Board and Investor Reporting

Generate forward-looking revenue projections for board presentations and fundraising decks.

Hiring Planning

Forecast when revenue will support additional hires by projecting MRR against team cost targets.

Churn Impact Modeling

Model how reducing churn by 1% to 2% compounds into significantly higher revenue over 12 months.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

  • Assuming new subscriber acquisition stays constant. Growth rates fluctuate with marketing spend, seasonality, and market saturation.

  • Not modeling churn on the growing base. As your subscriber count increases, the absolute number of churned subscribers grows even if the rate stays flat.

  • Using annual churn when the model needs monthly churn. Divide annual churn by 12 only as a rough approximation; the compound formula is more accurate.

  • Ignoring expansion revenue from upgrades and add-ons, which can partially or fully offset churn.

Frequently Asked Questions

Accuracy and Disclaimer

Revenue forecasts are projections based on your inputs and assumed growth rates. Actual results depend on market conditions, competitive dynamics, product changes, and execution. Update assumptions monthly for best accuracy.