Subscription Revenue Forecast Calculator
Project 12-month subscription revenue based on current subscribers, ARPU, new subscriber growth, and monthly churn rate with a month-by-month forecast table.
Month-over-month increase in new subscriber acquisition
Enter subscription metrics and click forecast.
What This Calculator Does
This subscription revenue forecast calculator projects 12 months of recurring revenue based on your current subscriber count, average revenue per user (ARPU), new subscriber acquisition rate, and monthly churn. It generates a month-by-month table showing subscriber growth, MRR, and ARR projections.
The Formula
Each month, the model adds new subscribers and removes churned subscribers (churn rate applied to the start-of-month base). MRR is the total active subscriber count multiplied by average revenue per user. An optional growth rate compounds the new subscriber count month over month to model accelerating acquisition.
Step-by-Step Example
Enter current metrics
500 active subscribers at $49/month ARPU. MRR: $24,500.
Set growth parameters
50 new subscribers per month. 5% monthly churn rate. 5% month-over-month growth in new subs.
Review Month 6
Subscribers: 592. New: 64/mo. Churned: 30/mo. MRR: $29,008.
Review Month 12
Subscribers: 701. MRR: $34,349. ARR: $412,188. Customer LTV: $980.
Real-World Use Cases
Board and Investor Reporting
Generate forward-looking revenue projections for board presentations and fundraising decks.
Hiring Planning
Forecast when revenue will support additional hires by projecting MRR against team cost targets.
Churn Impact Modeling
Model how reducing churn by 1% to 2% compounds into significantly higher revenue over 12 months.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Assuming new subscriber acquisition stays constant. Growth rates fluctuate with marketing spend, seasonality, and market saturation.
Not modeling churn on the growing base. As your subscriber count increases, the absolute number of churned subscribers grows even if the rate stays flat.
Using annual churn when the model needs monthly churn. Divide annual churn by 12 only as a rough approximation; the compound formula is more accurate.
Ignoring expansion revenue from upgrades and add-ons, which can partially or fully offset churn.
Frequently Asked Questions
Accuracy and Disclaimer
Revenue forecasts are projections based on your inputs and assumed growth rates. Actual results depend on market conditions, competitive dynamics, product changes, and execution. Update assumptions monthly for best accuracy.
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