2026 USDA projected marketing year average prices and national average yields
Production Costs (Optional)
Seed, fertilizer, chemicals, fuel
Land rent, insurance, equipment
Select a crop type and enter yield and price data to estimate per-acre and total farm revenue using 2026 USDA projections.
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Introduction
Corn at $4.20 per bushel and a break-even of $5.00. That is the 2026 reality for most Midwestern row crop producers. The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum projects marketing year average prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat all below estimated break-even levels, meaning every acre planted this year starts at a projected loss before the first seed goes in the ground. Yet farms across the Corn Belt still generate positive cash flow by knowing their exact numbers: farm-specific yield history, local cash basis, government program eligibility, and precise cost-per-acre figures. The USDA Economic Research Service tracks U.S. net farm income, which dropped 25% from its 2022 peak and is forecast to fall further in 2026. A crop yield revenue calculator does not change those macroeconomic pressures, but it replaces gut-feel planning with data-driven decisions about which crops, which fields, and which marketing strategies make the most financial sense this season.
What This Calculator Does
This calculator estimates gross revenue per acre by multiplying your expected yield by the market price for any crop. It uses 2026 USDA projected prices as defaults: $4.20/bu corn, $10.30/bu soybeans, $5.00/bu wheat. Enter your own farm-specific yield history and local cash price to override those defaults. The tool calculates per-acre and total farm revenue, accepts optional production cost inputs for profitability analysis, and factors in crop insurance indemnities and government program payments (ARC-CO, PLC) to show net farm income.
The Formula
Gross revenue multiplies crop yield (bushels, pounds, or tons per acre) by the price received per unit at your local elevator, adjusted for basis. Net income subtracts total production costs from gross revenue plus any supplemental income. Variable costs include seed, fertilizer, pesticides, fuel, and drying. Fixed costs include land rent or mortgage payments, crop insurance premiums, equipment depreciation, and property taxes. Government program payments from ARC-CO or PLC are added to gross revenue since they compensate for low prices or yields and are part of the total farm income picture.
Step-by-Step Example
Enter your crop and farm-specific yield
Select corn. Enter your actual APH (Actual Production History) rather than the national average. Example: your farm averages 197 bu/ac over 5 years versus the national average of 181 bu/ac. Using your actual yield changes the revenue projection from $760/ac to $827/ac at $4.20/bu.
Set the market price and basis
Start with the 2026 USDA projected price of $4.20/bu for corn. Adjust for your local basis. If your elevator bids $0.25 under December futures and futures are $4.45, your local cash price is $4.20. For forward contracted bushels, use the contract price instead.
Enter acres and all production costs
Enter total acres (example: 650 acres). Variable costs: $480/acre (seed $130, fertilizer $195, chemicals $85, fuel $45, custom work $25). Fixed costs: $425/acre (cash rent $275, insurance $80, equipment depreciation $70). Total cost: $905/acre, $588,250 for the farm.
Add government payments and review profitability
Add expected ARC-CO payment: $28/acre for 2026 on corn base acres. Gross revenue at 197 bu/ac x $4.20: $827/ac. Plus ARC-CO: $855/ac. Less costs: -$905/ac. Net loss: -$50/acre (-$32,500 total). Compare across crops to find which produces the smallest loss this season.
Real-World Use Cases
Pre-Season Planting and Budget Decisions
A 1,200-acre row crop operation in central Illinois needs to decide the corn-soybean rotation for 2026. Running the revenue model at current prices shows corn losing $50/ac and soybeans losing $38/ac. The decision is not which crop is profitable, it is which crop loses less and how to minimize total farm losses through government programs, forward contracting, and cost reduction.
Operating Loan Application to FSA or Commercial Lender
Lenders require a farm cash flow projection to approve operating loans. The revenue calculator provides the income side of that projection: acres, yield, price, and total gross revenue per crop. Combined with production cost data, it generates the net farm income figure lenders use to evaluate loan feasibility and debt service coverage.
Crop Insurance Coverage Level Selection
A farmer with an APH of 190 bu/ac for corn is choosing between 75% and 85% revenue protection coverage. The revenue calculator shows that at the 2026 spring price of $4.62/bu (insurance price), 75% coverage guarantees $659/ac in revenue while 85% coverage guarantees $747/ac. Comparing those guarantee levels against total production costs determines which coverage adequately protects the operation.
Comparison
| Crop | 2026 USDA Price | National Avg Yield | Revenue/Acre | Est. Break-Even | Margin/Acre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | $4.20/bu | 181 bu/ac | $760 | $5.00/bu | -$145 |
| Soybeans | $10.30/bu | 53 bu/ac | $546 | $12.27/bu | -$103 |
| Winter Wheat | $5.00/bu | 52 bu/ac | $260 | $7.96/bu | -$156 |
| Cotton | $0.68/lb | 875 lbs/ac | $595 | $0.78/lb | -$88 |
| Grain Sorghum | $4.10/bu | 74 bu/ac | $303 | $4.85/bu | -$55 |
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Using national average yields instead of farm-specific APH. National averages (181 bu/ac for corn) mask enormous variability by soil type, drainage, and management. A farm with 197 bu/ac APH generates $67/acre more revenue than the national average at the same price. Always use your actual yield history.
Ignoring local basis when using USDA price projections. The USDA marketing year average price is a national figure. Your actual sale price depends on your local elevator's basis, which varies by region and delivery month. A -$0.35 basis on corn reduces your effective price from $4.20 to $3.85/bu, worsening the margin by $63/acre at 181 bu/ac.
Omitting all fixed costs from profitability analysis. Cash rent ($200 to $400/acre), crop insurance premiums ($60 to $120/acre), and equipment depreciation are real costs even if no cash changes hands at planting. Omitting them gives a false profit picture and leads to decisions that work on paper but destroy equity over time.
Not including government program payments in revenue projections. ARC-CO and PLC payments can add $15 to $60+ per acre on base acres in low-price years. Projecting farm income without including expected program payments understates actual revenue by a meaningful margin in 2026.
Calculating revenue only on planted acres, not base acres. Government payments are made on base acres, not planted acres. If your farm has 500 corn base acres but you plant 520 corn acres, payments only apply to the 500 base acres.
Frequently Asked Questions
Accuracy and Disclaimer
This calculator provides revenue and income estimates based on the yield and price data you enter, with 2026 USDA projections as defaults. Actual revenue depends on realized yield, local cash prices, basis, quality discounts, and delivery timing. Net income estimates depend on cost inputs you provide, which may not reflect all actual farm costs. These results are for planning purposes only and do not constitute financial or tax advice. Consult your local extension agricultural economist, farm financial advisor, or FSA office for farm-specific analysis.
Conclusion
A crop yield revenue calculator gives you a clear view of what each field needs to produce to cover costs and whether the current price environment supports that target. In a year where national corn prices sit $0.80 below estimated break-even, knowing your specific farm break-even is not optional, it is essential for every planting, marketing, and insurance decision. Once you have mapped your revenue picture, use the Break-Even Yield Calculator to determine exactly how many bushels per acre you need at current prices, and the Crop Insurance Indemnity Calculator to model how different coverage levels protect your revenue floor.
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